UrbanWire

Can the LORD outwit the MASTER for Best Picture? Or will a dark horse called SEABISCUIT steal the crown? Even a MYSTIC would be LOST for answers.

These are uncertain times. Bombs dropping from nowhere, tremors even in earthquake-free Singapore, space rovers gone missing and now Jesus Christ is in a movie. The same air of uncertainty and expectation shrouds Hollywood Hills as the pundits, actors, directors, producers (okay, the entire Sunset Boulevard) anticipate the Oscars on Feb 29 with plenty of unsettling questions ever since Sigourney Weaver announced the nominees on Jan 27.

What if The Lord of the Rings trilogy (if you're that anal, The Return of the King then) doesn't win Best Picture? Would Sauron unleash the greatest evil known to the race of men? Who's Shohreh Aghdashloo? Tom Cruise and ex-wife Nicole Kidman aren't nominated? Why is Patricia Clarkson getting her first nomination now? What does Miramax chief Harvey Weinstein have to say after Cold Mountain is given the cold shoulder (thus effectively ending Miramax's occupation in Best Picture for 11 years)? And more importantly, will the hobbits (Elijah Wood et al) attend the Oscars barefoot?

Best Actor

It's the battle of the comic talent and the dramatic veteran in Hollywood bad boys Bill Murray and Sean Penn respectively. Murray's portrayal of down-and-out actor Bob Harris suffering from a mid-life crisis in Lost in Translation would especially resonate with the middle-aged Academy voters. Is this redemption for Murray after the blatant overlook on his 1998 Rushmore performance? But we know Murray's dislike for Oscar campaigning, which may hurt his chances. And a comedic role is often regarded as the poorer cousin to the dramatic one, hence Penn might just win for his role as an anguished father in Mystic River. Voters will be reminded of the scene where Penn hollers till his voice goes hoarse when he discovers his daughter is dead. Penn might also be judged by 2 performances instead of 1 in Mystic River and 21 Grams. This is Penn's 4th nomination, and time for his 1st win. Another anguished father is Sir Ben Kingsley who played an Iranian colonel consumed with pride and love for his family in House of Sand and Fog, but his chances might be overshadowed by a win back in 1982 for Gandhi. If this were the MTV award, Johnny Depp and Jude Law would probably win given their pretty boy looks, but thank God it isn't.

Best Actress

This year, the category is the most underwhelming. Consider the evidence: none of the 5 actresses' movies are nominated for Best Picture. Samantha Morton hardly figures in In America as a grief-stricken mother, perhaps she's in the wrong category. 13-year-old Keisha Castle-Hughes is the youngest nominee in the category and her performance as a determined warrior princess in Whale Rider is enough to raise a few eyebrows, but not enough to save a nondescript movie. Naomi Watts is cool with vengeance in 21 Grams but being crammed in a movie with 2 other astounding actors isn't enough to warrant a leading status. Diane Keaton may be infectious with her pouts and laughs in Something's Gotta Give but haven't we seen that somewhere? Yes, in a repeat performance from Annie Hall, which she won an Oscar. Charlize Theron is almost unrecognisable as serial killer Aileen Wuornos in Monster and Hollywood loves to award the ugly (read: Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry and Nicole Kidman in The Hours). But don't short change Theron just because she wears fake teeth. What's more deserving is Theron portraying Wuornos in an objective yet beautiful manner - a balance of deep longing for true love and a sympathetic hatred for men.

Who will win: Charlize Theron

Best Supporting Actor

What's Djimon Hounsou doing here when his role in In America came and went in a flash? We suspect it's because the Academy is guilty of overlooking his role in Amistad. Ken Watanabe may be fluent in English, but we're not sure of his over-the-top and Zen-pretentious role in The Last Samurai. Alec Baldwin gets his first nomination as the evil casino boss in The Cooler but how many exactly have watched the movie? Besides, his farcical performance in The Cat in the Hat will scare off voters. Benicio Del Toro, who last won in the same category for Traffic, might have a shot this time round as reformed convict in 21 Grams. But compared to Tim Robbins, the latter edges out with a disturbing and profound performance as a deranged sexually abused man in Mystic River. Long neglected by the Academy, this year belongs to the thespian Robbins.

Who will win: Tim Robbins

Best Supporting Actress

This is the category that's considered a career curse for winners. What ever happened to Kim Basinger (L.A. Confidential), Juliette Binoche (Chocolat), Mira Sorvino (Mighty Aphrodite) and Dianne Wiest (Bullets Over Broadway) post-wins? Marcia Gay Harden threatens to break the curse after another nomination in Mystic River but her win for Pollock back in 2000 might dampen chances. Likewise for Holly Hunter in Thirteen, who won for The Piano in 1993. Finally, indie queen Patricia Clarkson gets her first nomination but Pieces of April isn't her strongest piece. We hope Clarkson will get more nominations in future, but for now, let's enjoy the gift basket. Which leaves a close fight between Renée Zellweger and Iranian actress Shohreh Aghdashloo. The latter delivered a heart wrenching performance in House of Sand and Fog in amazingly, Farsi and minimal spoken English but that can be her weakest link as well. Critics are able to feel her performance in her gushed silence but the voters might not. Zellweger, shunned in the Best Actress category for the past 2 years, is a favourite to win for her tomboyish Southern chick performance in Cold Mountain. In such a bleak movie, it's a relief Zellweger delivers the laughs. And on Oscar night, the Academy will hopefully deliver the statuette to her as well.

Who will win: Renée Zellweger

Best Director

After 3 films that span 9 hours (not counting extended versions) and grossing $6 billion worldwide, how can Peter Jackson not win for his near-perfect vision and direction in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King? Sofia Coppola, in her first nomination for Lost in Translation, must be proud to carry her father's torch and should look elsewhere for a win - the original screenplay category. Fernando Meirelles must be wondering why is he doing here when his film City of God was denied the Best Foreign Film last year. True, Clint Eastwood (Mystic River) and Peter Weir (Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World) are masters of their own class but unfortunately Jackson is still the valedictorian, the hobbit and the King.

Who will win: Peter Jackson

Best Picture

Strong acting performances from Penn and Robbins might have earned Mystic River some credibility but it isn't sufficient. Lost in Translation is after all, a moody piece that lacks the epic punch everybody loves. Seabiscuit is typical Hollywood fanfare of mankind's victory over adversity but can it really last the race? Those Hallmark moments can't be compared to the grandeur of Middle Earth. Master and Commander is an honest piece on living in a majestic ship and sharing brotherly love, but voters are more akin to the enormous amount of brotherly love seen among elves and hobbits instead. We don't need a Rivendell elf to predict the outcome for this category. It's clearly the return of the rightful King after marooning for the past 2 years with a paltry 6 trophies in technical categories despite earning 30 nominations altogether for the trilogy. Although Annie Hall sloshed Star Wars in 1977, seriously, do the voters really want to face the fans wrath? At last, there is light at the end of a 3-year darkness.

Who will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

BINGO! UrbanWire scores all 6 out of 6 major categories correct!
Some say the winners were predictable and a foregone conclusion. We bet they either lost bets on their predictions or are just plain jealous. For the record, the local broadsheet and weekly English entertainment magazine didn't score all 6 correct. Only UrbanWire had a clean sweep.

In other words, One Website to Rule Them All.

Best Actor - Sean Penn
Best Actress - Charlize Theron
Best Supporting Actor - Tim Robbins
Best Supporting Actress - Renée Zellweger
Best Director - Peter Jackson
Best Picture - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King